TAPI

तुर्कमेनिस्तान ने बीते रविवार को तुर्केमेनिस्तान से अफ़ग़ानिस्तान और पाकिस्तान होकर भारत तक जाने वाली ’तापी गैस पाईपलाईन’ का  निर्माण-कार्य शुरू कर दिया। इसके अलावा तुर्कमेनिस्तान ने अपने सबसे बड़े ’गालकिनिश’ गैस भण्डार के विकास का तीसरा दौर भी शुरू कर दिया है। ’गालकिनिश’ गैस भण्डार से ही तुर्कमेनिस्तान तापी गैस पाईपलाईन को जोड़ेगा।

पूर्वी तुर्कमेनिस्तान के मारी नगर के क़रीब तापी गैस पाईपलाईन का शिलन्यास किया गया। इस शिलन्यास समारोह में तुर्कमेनिस्तान के राष्ट्रपति गुरबांगुली बेरदीमुहम्मेदफ़, अफ़ग़ानिस्तान के राष्ट्रपति मुहम्मद अशरफ़ गनी, पाकिस्तान के प्रधानमन्त्री नवाज़ शरीफ़ और भारत के उपराष्ट्रपति मौहम्मद हमीद अंसारी उपस्थित थे।

इस अवसर पर उपस्थित लोगों को सम्बोधित करते हुए तुर्कमेनिस्तान के राष्ट्रपति गुरबांगुली बेरदीमुहम्मेदफ़ ने कहा कि इस परियोजना पर अमल करने से न सिर्फ़ गैस के आपूर्तिकर्ता देश और गैस का पारगमन करने वाले देशों और गैस के उपभोक्ता देश को लाभ होगा, बल्कि इससे इस इलाके में अन्तरराष्ट्रीय सहयोग का विकास करने तथा इस इलाके में स्थिरता और शान्ति को मजबूत बनाने की भी सम्भावना मिलेगी। तुर्कमेनिस्तान के राष्ट्रपति ने बताया कि ’तापी’ गैस पाईपलाईन का निर्माण दिसम्बर 2019 तक पूरा कर लिया जाएगा।

तुर्कमेनिस्तान के सबसे बड़े गैस भण्डार ’गालकिनिश’ से शुरू होने वाली यह गैस पाईपलाईन 1814 किलोमीटर लम्बी होगी। यह पाईपलाईन अफ़ग़ानिस्तान के हेरात और कन्धार नगरों तथा पाकिस्तान के क्वेटा और मुल्तान नगरों से गुज़रकर भारतीय-पाक सीमा पर स्थित भारतीय शहर फ़ाज़िल्का तक जाएगी।

EXTRA:- "तापी पाइपलाइन परियोजना"

प्रश्न:- तापी पाइपलाइन परियोजना पर प्रकाश डालते हुए, भारतीय ऊर्जा सुरक्षा के सन्दर्भ के साथ-साथ दक्षिण-मध्य एशिया के एकीकरण और स्थायित्व में इस परियोजना के महत्व पर विचार प्रकट कीजियेI

०-० तापी पाइपलाइन परियोजना तुर्कमेनिस्तान, अफगानिस्तान, पाकिस्तान होकर गैस पाइपलाइन भारत तक आनी है

०-० तापी के जरिए तुर्कमेनिस्तान के गलकीनाइश क्षेत्र से गैस कांधार (अफगानिस्तान) व मुल्तान (पाकिस्तान) होते हुए फाजिल्का (भारत) पहुंचेगी। इसके माध्यम से सभी देशों बिजली संयत्रों को गैस की आपूर्ति होगीI

०-० लम्बाई:- 1800 किलोमीटर.
•०-० मार्ग : गलकी नाइश (तुर्कमेनिस्तान) कंधार (अफगानिस्तान) मुलतान (पाकिस्तान) और फाजिल्का (भारत)

• अनुमानित लागत : 7.6 अरब डॉलर
• शिलान्यास : 13 दिसम्बर 2015,
• आपूर्ति शुरू होगी : दिसम्बर 2019 तक

=>विस्तार से :-

- तुर्कमेनिस्तान-अफगानिस्तान-पाकिस्तान-भारत (तापी) गैस पाइपलाइन परियोजना पर 7.6 अरब डालर का खर्च आने का अनुमान है। इस पाइपलाइन के जरिए भारत में बिजली संयंत्रों को गैस की आपूर्ति की जाएगी।

- प्रस्तावित 1800 किलोमीटर लंबी तापी गैस पाइपलाइना दिसम्बर 2019 तक चालू हो जाएगी। (

- तापी परियोजना, मध्य एशिया को ऊर्जा की कमी से जूझ रहे दक्षिण एशिया से जोड़ने वाली इस तरह की और परियोजनाओं के लिए रास्ता खोलेगा।

- इस पाइपलाइन के जरिये पूर्व सोवियत संघ के इस राज्य से गैस की कमी वाले भारत, पाकिस्तान और अफगानिस्तान को गैस की आपूर्ति की जाएगी। इसके जरिये दैनिक नौ करोड घनमीटर गैस की आपूर्ति 30 साल तक की जायेगी।

- तापी गैस पाइपलाइन परियोजना से क्षेत्रीय सहयोग में बढ़ावा मिलेगा, देश निकट आयेगेI भारत-पाक रिश्ते को नया आयाम मिलेगाI

• एक और फायदा : पाइपलाइन के साथ-साथ चारों देश फाइबर आप्टिक केबल से जुड़ेंगे। तुर्कमेनिस्तान, अफगानिस्तान और पाकिस्तान विद्युत पारेषण लाइन से भी जुडेंगे

- इसके अलावा एक बिजली पारेषण लाइन भी तुर्कमेनिस्तान,अफगानिस्तान व पाकिस्तान को जोड़ेगी।

=>इसे भी जानिए :- "शांति का पाइपलाइन" IPI**
०-० इसके पहले ईरान से पाकिस्तान होते हुए भारत तक आने वाली गैस पाइपलाइन को काफी प्रोत्साहन दिया गया था। इसे दोनों देशों ने ‘शांति का पाइपलाइन’ नाम भी दिया था। बाद में अमेरिकी दबाव में भारत व पाकिस्तान ने इससे किनारा कर लिया था।

- इससे भारत को गैस मिलती जबकि पाकिस्तान को अहम विदेशी मुद्रा। इस वजह से कई लोग मानते हैं कि दोनों देश जब एक दूसरे की जरूरत पर निर्भर होंगे तो आपसी रिश्तो को ठेस पहुंचाने के लिए कोई कदम नहीं उठाया जा सकेगा।

- बहरहाल, यह सिद्धांत तापी परियोजना के लिए भी लागू होती है। हकीकत में इस परियोजना का एक बड़ा हिस्सा अफगानिस्तान और पाकिस्तान के मुल्तान जैसे आतंक प्रभावित इलाकों से गुजरेगा। 

Adaptation projects key to fighting climate change

On a sunny day, Maavah, one of the islands of the Laamu Atoll in the Maldives, is a veritable paradise. Visitors are welcomed by white sandy beaches dotted with swaying palm trees and a modern harbor. The island's top-notch facilities include a high school and a medical clinic.

     But for the people of the island, such as Yusuf Shiham and his son Mohammed, this picture-perfect scene so popular with tourists is far from the reality of their lives. They do not resent tourists, but they must contend with problems that holidaymakers almost never witness.

     In recent years, inhabitants of the Maldives have been on the receiving end of nature's wrath more times than they would like to count.

     The Shihams' home is flooded annually by storm surges and high tides. Seawater inundates their mango and coconut plantations time and again, hitting hard at their source of income.

     With recurrent floods contaminating groundwater, and long dry spells creating drinking water shortages, the plight of these island communities could not be starker. The slightest fluctuation in ocean currents or an undersea earthquake thousands of kilometers away can cause tremendous damage in a matter of hours.

     The science behind climate change might certainly be complex, but the impact it has on lives and livelihoods is straightforward.

Adapting to climate change

Simply put, besides changing the way people act and think about the environment, the most pressing need for communities at risk is funding. Money that will help them adapt to climate change and protect their homes, jobs and lives.

     In the Maldives, rising sea levels and storm surges have salinated freshwater tables on several islands. But now, adaptation projects across these islands are helping communities harvest rainwater to make up for the loss of those freshwater tables.

     According to a United Nations Environment Programme Adaptation Gap Report, developing countries, particularly those categorized as small island developing states, or SIDs, like the Maldives and various landlocked and mountainous nations, face serious challenges in terms of mobilizing resources for adapting to climate change.

The SIDs, for instance, have relatively small settlements, where -- given concerns over economies of scale -- private for-profit investments can be difficult to attract. These countries can spare very little of their own public resources to cater to the adaptation needs of communities spread across far-flung islands.

     But financing for adaptation while seemingly simple, is an issue of contention in the global climate-change talks now taking place in Paris.

     Despite international pledges made during previous conferences to raise over $100 billion annually for such efforts by 2020, the funding provided for adaptation initiatives in 2012-13 was only about $25 billion, 88% of which was spent outside the developed world.

     UNEP's Adaptation Gap Report estimates that by 2050, the annual cost of adaptation for developing countries will have risen to between $250 billion and $500 billion, even with the necessary cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.

New approach

If the world is to help countries such as SIDs combat climate change, we need a more multidimensional approach to financing adaptation.

     This includes the ability of a country to mobilize domestic resources and leverage affordable private finance, to deal with its debt levels, its vulnerability to economic shocks, as well as natural disasters.

     This is where the private sector, philanthropists and individuals could play a vital role. Last year, Americans donated up to $258 billion, according to Giving USA, a philanthropic annual report that monitors charitable donations.

     This is more than double what adaptation currently costs -- based on current projections of $100 billion annually. While it is true that needs are ever on the rise, fortunately, so too are contributions from individuals.

     Indeed, the potential of crowd-funding platforms to finance adaptation projects that help communities build resilience to cope with climate change is immense.

     In 2014, over $16 billion was raised through such platforms and that amount is likely to double this year, says Massolution, an online platform that tracks crowd-funding contributions annually.

     Crowd-funding is particularly viable in the context of SIDs, where comparatively small investments -- say, of around $50,000 or so -- could help extend the reach of adaptation measures over entire communities and deliver big results.

     In the case of the Maldives, any platform would have to be linked to the tourism industry, given that the country receives over a million visitors every year. Tourism accounts for nearly 30% of gross domestic product and over 60% of foreign exchange earnings for the Maldives.

     The islands attract high-spending tourists. Hypothetically, if each tourist were to voluntarily contribute $20 that could add up to an annual collection of $20 million.

Integrated programs

Working with the government, the U.N. is already piloting an innovative approach in the Maldives that seeks to make awareness and sensitivity about climate-change issues an integral part of development and planning at the local level, thus bringing about a change in the way communities think and act on climate change. The goal is to integrate climate change and adaptation into government development plans and programs, at all levels including at the grassroots.

     The first step under this program -- Low Carbon Emission and Climate Resilient Development (LECReD) -- involves promoting a low-carbon lifestyle while building communities that are resilient to the impact of climate change.

     The objective is that this will lead to short-term, medium-term and long-term development planning for the islands and atolls based on the evidence from a project underway at Laamu Atoll. The project puts decision-making and implementation of adaptation measures and projects into the hands of residents and their local councils.

     In addition, under this program, the U.N. will provide up to $50,000 to local councils, community-based organizations, and women's development committees. But clearly, that is not enough money to sustain projects on waste and water management, energy, floods, soil erosion and conservation for communities, for the long term.

     The LECReD program will help communities develop their own climate-sensitive plans for development, and explore the public and private finance options.

     While our efforts to build partnerships with the private sector and individuals are still works in progress, it is evident that the private sector, philanthropists, as well as individuals are vital to funding, and can help communities adapt to risks from climate change.

Abe to Cash In on Modi Friendship as China Dominates Trade

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s personal friendship with Indian counterpart Narendra Modi is starting to yield more tangible results, with the nations close to signing deals on defense equipment and India’s first high-speed rail link.

On a three-day visit to the world’s biggest democracy this weekend, Abe will seek to nail down some concrete achievements to counter China’s increasing assertiveness in the region. The nations have a long way to go: Trade between them is about 5 percent of China’s commerce with Japan, and less than a quarter of its transactions with India.

“The relationship between India and Japan is perhaps the best it has ever been, largely because they have prime ministers who look at the region and the world in very similar terms," said Harsh Pant, professor of international relations at King’s College London. “They are very nationalistic, center-right prime ministers who have a certain idea about the rise of China and about its implications for both these states."

The close personal ties between the two leaders are helping bring the countries closer. Modi is one of a handful of people whom Abe follows on Twitter, where the pair occasionally exchange public messages. When Modi visited Japan last year, Abe took the unusual step of showing him around the ancient capital of Kyoto. This week, after their fifth formal summit, they are set to visit Varanasi for a Hindu ritual at the Ganges river.

Abe arrives on Friday for a meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj before addressing a seminar at a five-star hotel in New Delhi, according to aschedule from the Indian government. On Saturday he meets with business leaders and India’s president before he meets Modi for a summit and trip to Varanasi.

‘Security Diamond’

The courtship is part of Japan’s effort to broaden its network of informal allies to balance China’s activities in the region -- a step toward Abe’s blueprint for a “security diamond" of regional democracies that includes the U.S. and Australia. For its part, India has been more assertive toward China in recent months, drawing up plans todevelop a disputed region along their border and echoing language used by the U.S. and Japan to criticize Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea.

Japan and India’s foreign ministers underscored their concern over China in a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in September. The three countries made a statement calling for freedom of navigation and overflight, as well as unimpeded lawful commerce, including in the South China Sea. In October, the nations held a naval drill in the Bay of Bengal.

Nuclear Program

While neither Japan nor India has a claim in the dispute over the South China Sea, both see parallels with their own situation. Coast guard ships from Japan and China regularly tail one another around islets disputed between the two countries in the East China Sea, while border tensions linger between India and China, which fought a four-week war in 1962 over their Himalayan border.

Abe’s enthusiasm for India dates back almost a decade to when he was prime minister the first time around. Even so, the two countries have yet to hold the kind of top level "two plus two" meetings of defense and foreign ministers that Japan holds with the U.S., Australia and several other countries. Sensitivities over India’s nuclear weapons program have hampered attempts to cooperate on atomic energy, while a proposed transfer of Japan’s US-2 amphibian planes has made slow progress.

Rail Line

Other areas look more promising. India appears set to agree this weekend to adopt Japanese technology for a 505-kilometer (314-mile) rail link between Mumbai and Ahmedabad following discussions started by Abe and Modi’s predecessors in 2012. Japan is offering a loan to cover 81 percent of the 980 billion rupee ($14.7 billion) cost. A deal would help restore Japanese pride after it lost out to China on a separate $5-billion rail deal in Indonesia, and relieve pressure on Modi to accelerate the modernization of his country.

“The Shinkansen is a symbol of Japanese industry," said Koji Kobayashi, a senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo, referring to Japan’s bullet train. "If it is adopted in India, it will be good public relations for the government and will play well with the Japanese public. Particularly after the loss to China in Indonesia, it would be a great souvenir to bring back."

Modi’s government has set up an office to promote inward investment from Japan, and the two leaders vowed last year to double direct investment in five years. Japan was the fourth biggest investor in India between April 2000 and September 2015, with 7 percent of the total, compared with 0.5 percent for China, according to India’s commerce ministry.

‘Kindred Spirit’

India will also sign an agreement on defense equipment cooperation with Japan this weekend, the Mainichi newspaper said last month. The content will be based on Japan’sexisting agreements with the U.K., France and Australia, allowing it to export equipment and transfer technology for joint development projects, potentially including the US-2 planes.

Even as the India-Japan relationship blossoms, Modi has taken care to maintain friendly ties with President Xi Jinping while Abe has also worked to overcome tensions with China. Still, Pant from King’s College London says, Modi is a leader who can help justify Abe’s long-time optimism toward India.

“He has found his kindred spirit," Pant said of Abe. "If ever there was any hope of tackling some of the difficult issues, this is it."

2. 

Modi had to look for the spotlight during his US visit

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to the U.S. was his second since he took office in May 2014. Since then, U.S.-India relations have rebounded from the lows they wallowed in during the second term of the previous United Progressive Alliance government, headed by Dr. Manmohan Singh.

     Barack Obama in January became the first U.S. President to attend Republic Day celebrations in India; he is also the first U.S. President to visit India twice during his presidency. 

     During Obama's January trip, a U.S.-India Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region was issued. In it, the two nations affirm "the importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea." For India, this was indeed a break from the past; it had always been wary of being seen as collaborating in any kind of venture that aims at overtly challenging Beijing's growing aggressiveness.

While Modi was in the U.S. last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping was also there for a state visit. The attention showered on Xi showed both the U.S. government and U.S. industry -- in spite of concerns over cybersecurity and China's growing belligerence, especially in the South China Sea -- prefer to engage China rather than confront it.

     Xi made sure the U.S. business lobby was not disappointed: As he arrived, China placed an order for 300 Boeing aircraft worth nearly $38 billion. Boeing, meanwhile, decided to set up an aircraft assembly plant in China.

Major agreements

Just before Modi left for the U.S., the Indian government cleared a deal for the purchase of 22 Apache AH-64E attack helicopters and 15 Chinook CH-47F helicopters from Boeing. The deal is worth nearly $3 billion. In addition, before Modi started his U.S. trip, India and the U.S. held their first U.S.-India Strategic and Commercial Dialogue, in Washington, D.C.

     Defense cooperation between India and the U.S. is on the increase. India, the U.S. and Japan later this year will take part in the Malabar exercises in the Bay of Bengal. 

     Meanwhile, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Modi met on the sidelines of the 70th U.N. General Assembly. Leaders of these countries had not sat down together since the 2005 World Summit. They did so to jointly push their cases for permanent membership of an expanded U.N. Security Council. They released a joint statement in which they "strongly emphasized that the process underway in the U.N. to enlarge the Security Council should be conducted, given its urgency, in a fixed time frame."   

     Modi also visited the West Coast of the U.S. to court Silicon Valley-based technology companies and invite them to invest in India. He attended a Facebook Town Hall at the Internet giant's headquarters in Menlo Park, in the state of California, along with Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.

Microsoft announced that it would help to wirelessly connect 500,000 Indian villages to the Internet, while Qualcomm pledged $150 million for Indian startups. Google had already announced it would help the Indian government provide 500 free Wi-Fi hot spots at Indian railway stations.  

What next?

Pope Francis was also in the U.S. during Modi's visit. While he and Xi dominated U.S. headlines, Modi, like he has during previous overseas trips, courted the nonresident Indian crowd by giving a sold-out speech at the SAP Center in San Jose, California.

     It is this influential constituency that Modi will have to deal with the most in case of a change of government in the U.S.

     Republican front-runner Donald Trump has already taken aim at the H1B visa program, under which a lot of Indian tech professionals find employment in the U.S. He has indicated his desire to either cap or roll back the program, which is certainly not good news for India.

     On the other hand, were Democrat Hillary Clinton to become President, she might be more friendly toward India, given her long-standing ties with the Indian American community and also because of the India connections of her husband, former U.S. President Bill Clinton. It was Bill Clinton's landmark India trip in 2000 (two years after India conducted nuclear tests) that led to a new era in Indian engagement, not only with the U.S. but also with Japan and other nations.

     However, there are still areas where India and the U.S. are not on the same page. For one, they differ on how to deal with Pakistan.

     There is no denying that U.S.-India relations have been on the upswing since Modi took office, but India still has a lot of work to do if it is to improve its business climate. The country ranks a dismal 142 (out of 189 countries) in the World Bank's latest "ease of doing business" rankings.

     American companies have surely taken note.

2. 

Abe's Upcoming India Visit: Breaking New Ground in Japan-India Relations

On Friday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will begin his three day visit to India, where he will meet his counterpart, Narendra Modi.

This will be the ninth time for Japan and India to hold annual summit-level talks at the prime ministerial level. Relations between the two countries began to pick up during Abe’s previous term, and he was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2014 during the tenure of former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, a first for any Japanese premier. That is an indicator of the fact that closer ties with Japan enjoys bipartisan support in India.

During his visit, apart from the regular meetings he will hold, Abe is also expected to visit Varanasi, which is also the Lok Sabha constituency of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A partnership city arrangement was signed between Varanasi and Kyoto during Modi’s visit to Japan last year.

What is the significance of Abe’s visit? There are five points to keep in mind that provide important context for both what is likely to occur during this visit as well as the backdrop against which it is occurring.

First, Abe’s visit will sustain the momentum already built up in bilateral ties. Japan was the first country Modi visited outside the Indian subcontinent after he took office in May last year. This return visit by Abe will be a boost in the other direction. During Modi’s Japan visit, the relations were upgraded to a “Special Strategic and Global Partnership.”

Second, economically, this visit by Abe is expected to see the finalization of the deal for Japan to supply its Shinkansen (bullet train) technology to India, beginning with the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train corridor in western India.

Third, turning to the security realm, the trip comes against the backdrop of a Japan that is looking to enhance its contributions to regional and global security. In that vein, during Abe’s visit, a deal may also be reached for India to buy the Japanese-made US-2 maritime reconnaissance aircraft, marking a first for Japan, which has traditionally been reticent to supply Japanese-made military hardware to other countries. It is also likely that a technology-sharing agreement for this aircraft will be concluded.

Fourth, Abe’s India visit will also strengthen security ties at a time when broader convergences are occurring between India and Japan as well as other countries like the United States and Australia. After years of not being invited by New Delhi to participate in the India-U.S. Malabar naval exercises for fear of alienating Beijing, Japan was invited this year. The exercises were held in October in the Bay of Bengal. India, Japan, and the United States have also been holding a trilateral dialogue among themselves which started in December 2011. Although India is not an ally of the United States, during the visit of U.S. President Barack Obama to India as the chief guest during the Republic Day celebrations in January this year, the two countries issued a joint statement affirming “the importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea.” In the past, India has been wary of being drawn into the South China Sea dispute, but this statement marked a break from the past.

Fifth, India is one of four outside bases Japan has selected for its specialized intelligence gathering unit to collect information on terrorist activities (the other three are Jordan, Egypt, and Indonesia). Terrorism has been a growing concern for Tokyo. Although there have been no terrorist attacks on Japanese soil, its nationals Kenji Goto and Haruna Yukawa were beheaded by the Islamic State this year, while an attack on a natural gas facility in Algeria in January 2013 killed seven Japanese citizens. In March 2015, a terrorist attack on a museum in Tunisia led to three Japanese deaths. In addition to helping save Japanese lives at home and abroad, intelligence will boost Japanese security as it prepares for the G-7 Summit in May next year at Ise-Shima in Mie Prefecture and the Tokyo Olympics in 2020.

This is not to say that there aren’t challenges for Japan-India relations. For example, the two prime ministers will have to do some heavy lifting in order to boost trade levels. Even though a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was signed between the two countries and implemented from August 2011, bilateral trade stood at just $16.31 billion during the fiscal year 2013-14, which represents just around 1 percent of Japan’s total foreign trade. In addition, it remains to be seen if a civilian nuclear deal between Japan and India can be finalized during this visit. There are still many details to be worked out and Abe is likely to face huge domestic opposition back home if he does sign a civilian nuclear pact with India.

Both Abe in Japan and Modi in India lead majority governments and hence are not prone to the pulls and pressures of coalition politics. All the more reason, then, for both of them to seize the initiative and take the bilateral relations to a new high.

India's huge stakes in Myanmar

India stands to gain a lot from Myanmar walking away from China’s embrace and turning democratic. As the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is visiting Myanmar next month, there is a lot to reconsider in the two countries’ relationship.

Very few observers in India and indeed across the world could have predicted the sudden change of course by the ruling military junta in Myanmar and its new-found love for democracy. Now, of course, it seems that democracy is on an irreversible course in Myanmar, particularly after the recent by-elections, which clearly brought out the overwhelming support for Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD).

There has been a plethora of visits by important world leaders to Myanmar like the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the British Foreign Secretary William Hague and the Japanese Foreign Minister, Koichiro Genba. Following suit soon will be the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who the Indian media has reported will be visiting Myanmar next month and when that happens, it will not come a day too soon.  It will also be the first Indian Prime Ministerial visit to Myanmar after a long gap of 25 years.

India stands to gain a lot from Myanmar walking away from China’s embrace and turning democratic.  During the US President Barack Obama’s visit to India in November 2010, he had chided the Indian establishment for “not doing enough” to promote democracy in Myanmar.  However, India has had its own reasons for dealing with the military junta in Myanmar. India had initially strongly supported the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar after the annulment of the 1990 election results by the junta, but as Myanmar inched closer to China, India decided to change tack.  

It was the then Indian foreign minister Jaswant Singh's landmark visit to Myanmar in 2001 that helped to break the ice, though the then Indian Foreign Secretary J.N Dixit’s Yangon visit in March 1993 had helped to set the ball rolling. Jaswant Singh’s visit was the first to Myanmar by an Indian Foreign Minister in 20 years. Since then, there has been a steady stream of high-level visits from both sides, including the visit last year in October by the Myanmarese President U Thein Sein. As of 2010-11, the total bilateral trade stood at US$ 1067.05 million.

So, why is Myanmar crucial for India?

Firstly, Myanmar is India’s land-bridge to the ASEAN region and is hence critical for the success of its “Look-East Policy” which aims at re-establishing close ties with the countries of Southeast and East Asia.

Secondly, Myanmar shares a long 1600-km land border with India’s Northeastern region, which has many active militant groups. Many of these groups in the past (and even now) have found shelter in Myanmar. Close ties will help India persuade Myanmar not to give shelter to anti-India elements.

Thirdly, Myanmar is rich in oil and natural gas-which India’s booming economy desperately needs. India has been scouting across the world for oil and gas resources and Myanmar is India’s immediate neighbour, which will enable India to cut down transportation costs and the risks involved. The Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline (IPI) has been a non-starter because of factors like American opposition to the same and the worrisome security situation in Pakistan. Already India’s state-owned ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited)-Videsh and GAIL(Gas Authority of India Limited) have made significant investments in the oil and gas sector in Myanmar.

Fourthly, it helps to reduce China’s growing strategic footprint in India’s neighbourhood. The Myanmarese junta had allegedly allowed China to set up a listening post at Coco Islands, abutting India’s Andaman and Nicobar chain of islands. Recently, India had to vote against Sri Lanka at a recent session of the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva on a resolution for 'promoting reconciliation and accountability' in Sri Lanka because of domestic political compulsions, whereas China, Pakistan and Bangladesh supported Sri Lanka.

Fifthly, Myanmar is crucial for India’s land connectivity with the rest of the Southeast Asian region. India has already built the India-Myanmar Friendship Road, between Tamu and Kalemayo in Myanmar and running onward to Kalewa, which will help India get land-connectivity to the other Southeast Asian countries.

Meanwhile, Myanmar also has a lot to gain from better and close ties with India.

India, as the world’s biggest democracy can do a few things for Myanmar, which China cannot, despite its economic and strategic influence. India with its democratic credentials and close relations with the U.S. and other Western and Asian powers can help Myanmar get full international acceptability, while gently prodding it to keep up its tryst with democracy.

India is already involved in a host of infrastructure and energy projects in Myanmar. Besides, it has provided 32 Myanmarese cities with high speed data link while Indian firms are involved in the development of Myanmar’s railway network, including the supply of railway coaches and locos.  India has set a target of June 2013 to complete the $120-million Sittwe deep water port in Myanmar.  This will be a game-changer for India’s landlocked Northeast as once the project is completed, vessels would be able to ply between India’s landlocked Northeastern state of Mizoram and the Sittwe port.

So, how can India help Myanmar as it takes baby-steps towards democracy?

Firstly, India should announce additional lines of credit to Myanmar, taking into consideration the areas that need immediate attention. During the Myanmarese President U Thein Sein’s state visit to India in October 2011, India announced the extension of an US$500 million Line of Credit to Myanmar.  This is in addition to the Lines of Credit of close to US$ 300 million that had been extended by India to Myanmar in the past.  In fact, Myanmar is as important for India’s national security as Afghanistan and just like India has given massive amounts of aid to Afghanistan; it should be prepared to do likewise in Myanmar.

Secondly, India should provide additional technical assistance and manpower, especially in the field of I-T, India’s key strength. Already, an India-Myanmar Centre for Enhancement of IT Skills (IMCEITS) is in operation in Myanmar.

Thirdly, India needs to help Myanmar get full international acceptability, especially now that India is a non-permanent member of the UNSC (United Nations Security Council)

Fourthly, India would do well to relax visa regimes for Myanmarese nationals (particularly those visiting India for religious purposes) and announce special scholarships for Myanmarese students to come and study at Indian institutions.

Fifthly, India could announce some unilateral concessions so that selected Myanmarese products can enter the Indian market. As the bigger partner, India has to be prepared to give Myanmar some unilateral concessions.

Sixthly, the Indian private sector should also be roped in on a bigger scale, especially in the infrastructure sector.  The kind of averseness to risks that the Indian private sector has shown does not augur well for them and for a rising power like India.

The entry of the private sector will also help to speed up the implementation of certain key projects.

Lastly, India should take the initiative to start bus services between Myanmar and some cities in Northeast India, taking a cue from the Delhi-Lahore and Kolkata-Dhaka bus services, while strictly ensuring that illegal weapons and narcotics do not find their way to India.

In some other areas, India will have to move cautiously. While India and Myanmar have agreed to cooperate in the implementation of the Tamanthi and Shwezaye power projects on the Chindwin river basin in Myanmar, it should learn from the Chinese mistake and avoid going ahead with the same. In September last year, the Myanmarese junta had suspended the construction of the Chinese-built $3.6billion Myitsone hydroelectricity project on the Irrawaddy river, which would have mostly supplied electricity to China. There was a massive public outcry against the project, which forced the Myanmarese government to retract and India would do well not to repeat the same mistake.

India’s policy towards its neighbours has rarely been successful. Myanmar gives India a golden chance to start afresh and upend its neighbourhood policy.  Myanmar will be a crucial test of India’s foreign policy, especially as it aspires for a seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and hence it calls for some out-of-the-box thinking.

2. India wades into the South China sea dispute

In a significant and deft move, India recently dispatched a naval contingent on a goodwill visit to Southeast Asia and East Asia.  This contingent will make port calls in the Southeast Asian countries of Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and then move on to Japan and China.  This move by India comes at a time when tensions have risen in the South China Sea, especially between countries like the Philippines and China.  However, the inclusion of China in the itinerary shows the intention of India’s strategic planners to keep channels of communication open with China and not to send wrong signals to China, despite differences in many areas. 

In October 2011, India’s state-owned oil behemoth Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) signed an agreement with PetroVietnam to “jointly explore upstream and down-stream opportunities in India, Vietnam and other countries”. ONGC’s foreign arm, the ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) has already been involved in exploring energy resources in Vietnam. However, on this occasion many sections in China went hammer and tongs at India and the influential Global Times newspaper in China in an article (published a few days after this agreement was signed) titled “India-Vietnam joint work must be halted” warned that “India is willing to fish in the troubled waters of the South China Sea so as to accumulate bargaining chips on other issues with China”. It went on to say, “China should denounce this agreement as illegal. Once India and Vietnam initiate their exploration, China can send non-military forces to disturb their work, and cause dispute or friction to halt the two countries' exploration.” India chose not to heed the “warning” and moved ahead with the exploration.

India, of course, is at a disadvantage vis-à-vis China when it comes to naval strength in the South China Sea, but has been stitching up close naval ties with a series of countries in Southeast Asia and East Asia, all of whom would like to see the South China Sea continue to be an international waterway.  India has been conducting the “Milan” multinational exercises since 1991 with Southeast Asian navies and including those from Australia and New Zealand.  With Thailand, India has been conducting India - Thailand Coordinated Patrol (INDO-THAI CORPAT) to counter terrorism, piracy and arms smuggling since 2006.  Meanwhile, India and Singapore have been conducting the annual naval SIMBEX (the Singapore-Indian Maritime Bilateral Exercises) since 1994.  India will be holding its first-ever bilateral naval exercise with Japan later this year.  Last year, Japan pulled out of the trilateral Malabar naval exercise alongside India and the US because of the Great East Japan earthquake. Prior to that in 2009, the three countries had held trilateral naval exercises. China had allegedly built a listening post in Myanmar’s Coco Islands, very close to India’s strategically important Andaman and Nicobar chain of islands.  However, with Myanmar taking baby steps to democracy, China may no longer have such a leeway with the government in Naypyitaw.

What are India’s interests in the South China Sea?

India does not have any territorial interests in the South China Sea, but it has huge economic interests. ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) has already pumped in around US$225 million into Vietnam. It is also important to note that India’s trade with Japan and South Korea has been growing and hence it is crucial that freedom of navigation is maintained in the South China Sea through which the trading routes between India and these East Asian countries pass. Meanwhile, India-ASEAN trade has reached US$ 57.89 billion in 2010-11. Any major conflict in the South China Sea region is bound to impact Indian economic interests.       

India is poised to play a greater role in the region, thanks to the growing strength of its Navy.  It is expected to take delivery of the refitted aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov by next year from Russia while work goes on apace on the indigenous Air Defence Ship (scheduled for completion by 2015.) Meanwhile, India has started the construction of its first indigenous nuclear submarine in 2009 and has plans to induct a third aircraft carrier by 2017.  Last month, the Indian Navy inducted into service the nuclear-powered attack submarine INS Chakra, brought on a 10-year lease from Russia.

However, India would be well-advised not to wade into the territorial disputes between China, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan in the South China Sea region. At the same time, India has to be prepared to deal with a potential skirmish with China in the South China Sea region, taking a cue from what has happened between China and some other countries.  What if a Chinese fishing trawler rams into Indian Navy vessels in the South China Sea? Such scenarios should be thought-out in advance to prevent knee-jerk reactions. At the same time it must be said that there is very less likelihood of any skirmish between India and China going out of control. There are enough avenues for cooperation between India and China in the maritime arena. Interestingly, in March this year, India and China agreed to undertake joint anti-piracy operations and share technological knowledge on seabed research.  This in many ways shows the way out for China and India in managing their conflicting interests in the South China Sea region.  China needs the Indian Navy’s commanding presence in the Indian Ocean region to keep its critical sea lanes of communication operational. At the same time, any conflict with India would also internationalise the South China Sea dispute, something which China desperately wants to avoid. This is something Indian strategic planners would do well to keep in mind. 

India's Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance in recent elections gained an unprecedented majority in parliament. The ruling alliance now commands a majority in the lower, more powerful house of parliament, the Lok Sabha, allowing it to make decisions without the pressures of coalition politics.

     The BJP won an absolute majority of 282 seats, and 336 of the 543 with alliance partners. In the past, governments have not been able to take firm stands on overseas issues because of pressure from coalition allies in regions near neighboring nations. That is not the case anymore.

   Smaller parties in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, which are near Sri Lanka and Bangladesh respectively, have generally taken hard lines. Lawmakers in Tamil Nadu would like to see the Modi government take a strong stand against Sri Lanka on the issue of alleged human rights violations by government forces. West Bengal leaders have in the past scuttled India's proposed deals with Bangladesh on sharing the waters of the Teesta River. The government of new Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, with its outright majority, has the political capital to say no.

Close-to-home focus

Modi's foreign policy started on the right note when he invited the heads of state of all South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation nations and Mauritius to his inauguration. Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif came to the ceremony, ignoring the wishes of hard-liners at home. Just before the inauguration, Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa announced his country's decision to release all jailed Indian fishermen.

     India's new External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj's first overseas visit was to Bangladesh; Modi's was to Bhutan. This signals that the new government's priorities lie in India's neighborhood, which was not the case with the previous government.

     The Modi government's emphasis on the neighborhood can be seen in other steps taken. The foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan will meet on Aug. 25, in a fresh bid to kick-start stalled dialogue. In another major development, Indian journalist Ved Prakash Vaidik met up in Pakistan with Hafiz Saeed, the chief of Lashkar-e-Taiba who masterminded the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks. Vaidik is considered close to the yoga guru Baba Ramdev, who has connections with BJP top brass. The government, however, distanced itself from the meeting.

     Deeper economic integration is also being considered. The government is looking at the possibility of setting up a South Asian bank on the lines of the BRICS one announced recently. Modi also visited Nepal earlier this month. The last Indian prime ministerial visit to Nepal took place 17 years ago. Nepal has huge potential for hydropower, and India could be at the center of a grid connecting South Asian countries.

     Better Nepal ties can help India in other ways. Naxalism (left-wing extremism) is officially termed India's biggest internal security threat. Not much attention has been devoted to it by earlier governments. New National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, however, worked extensively on India's internal security threats and has spent time in neighboring countries. Support from nations such as Nepal, which also have Maoist groups, can help India meet the Naxal challenge.

     China's wooing of the Bhutanese and Nepalese governments has also set Indian alarm bells ringing. The new government thinks more needs to be done to improve India's ties with South Asian countries.

3.

Obama's India visit: Turning the page

The recent visit of U.S. President Barack Obama to India has opened a new chapter in bilateral ties between the two nations. This is the first time an American president has visited India twice during his presidency and also the first time a U.S. president has served as the chief guest at India's Republic Day celebrations.

     Obama's trip caps a successful turnaround in India-U.S. relations, especially after the row between them over the treatment of a female Indian diplomat in the U.S. and differences over a host of issues, including India's nuclear liability act. Things started to improve after the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the U.S. in September of last year. Obama's return courtesy call, just four months later, only goes to show both countries are determined to overcome mistrust. 

     Obama also understands Modi has the capacity to take bold decisions because of the overwhelming majority that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance commands in the Lok Sabha, the more powerful of India's two houses of Parliament. Modi's emphasis on strengthening ties with the U.S. can also be seen from the appointment of S. Jaishankar, India's former ambassador to Washington, as the new foreign secretary after incumbent Sujatha Singh was unceremoniously shunted out.

Important takeaways

The most notable outcome of the Obama visit was that both countries succeeded in operationalizing the Indo-U.S. civilian nuclear deal, which had been stalled and was holding back progress in other areas. This breakthrough was achieved after the U.S. agreed to remove a contentious clause regarding the tracking of nuclear material supplied to India, and India signaled that it is prepared to move forward on the liability issue by offering to set up an insurance pool to bail out companies in the event of an accident.

     The U.S. president reiterated American support for India to become a permanent member of a reformed United Nations Security Council. It is also significant that Obama did not visit Pakistan on this trip, thereby completely delinking America's ties with Pakistan vis-a-vis India. Obama also affirmed U.S. support "towards India's phased entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the Missile Technology Control Regime, the Wassenaar Arrangement and the Australia Group," thereby reinforcing faith in India's strong nonproliferation credentials. 

   India's "look east policy" gels well with Washington's "rebalance" toward the Asia-Pacific. New Delhi has had concerns regarding Beijing's attempts to increase its maritime prowess in the Indian Ocean, particularly with initiatives like the "Maritime Silk Road." It is no surprise the Indo-U.S. Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region, released during the Obama visit, affirms "the importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea." This, however, is not likely to go unnoticed in China and marks a change in the tone and tenor of India's approach to such issues.     

Boost to business

During his visit, Obama committed $4 billion in the form of government-backed investments and loans to New Delhi. Total trade between the two countries stood at $63.7 billion in 2013 while the U.S. is the sixth-largest overseas investor in India. In the past, U.S. companies have had problems with the slow pace of decision-making in India. This seems set to change, especially after the launch of the "Make in India" initiative by the Modi government.

     In the field of defense, the two countries have agreed to pursue "coproduction and codevelopment of four pathfinder projects." American companies like Boeing are aggressively eyeing the Indian defense market, especially after the new government raised the cap on foreign investment in the defense sector to 49% from the earlier limit of 26%. India is also looking at more joint production of military hardware, which presents huge opportunities for American companies. The U.S. is now India's biggest weapons' supplier, though it was quite ironic that at the Republic Day parade, Obama was saluted by Russian-made tanks.